Why The Santana Trade Hurt The Indians

It isn't often a team can be upset about a division foe trading away a two time Cy-Young Award winner in the prime of his career. However, this is the case for the Cleveland Indians. The Twins trading away Johan Santana for a foursome of prospects without a doubt hurts the Indians. Now it may seem like I'm crazy to say this, but a quick look at the numbers tells you that this trade for the tribe was not good.

In 2007 Santana pitched against the Indians six times. In those starts he was 0-5 with a 4.39 ERA. While most people would say on its' face this looks simply like an anomaly: that the record against the Indians was a string of poor performances lined up against one team. However, that's not the case. Over the last three years Santana is 3-7 in 15 games with a 3.64 ERA. In the same time Johan has posted some astounding numbers against other Central Division Rivals. A 22-6 record compiled in the last three seasons against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers including a 4-0 record and a stingy 0.92 ERA against the 2005 World Champion White Sox.

In his appearances against playoff teams other than the Erie Warriors he was 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He didn't face the Angels and all of his inter-league contests were against non-playoff teams, although he did throw his only complete game as a shutout of the Mets. Trading Santana to the Yankees or Red Sox, while it would make the wild card more open it would make the World Series virtually impossible. However, keeping Santana in the AL would have been nice outside of those two teams. Keeping him in the division, while impractical, would have been even better.

Instead of having Johan around for the Indians to take some wins against, he's stuck in the NL East with only the possibility of stealing some games in inter-league play. The double whammy comes from the fact that Johan isn't around anymore to beat up on the rest of the AL, especially the AL Central.

Another way this trade hurts the Wig-Wam-ers is through dealing with CC Sabathia. Johan is expected to ask for and get 6 years at $20 million a year. Last year's Cy Young award winner, Sabathia, will at least entertain the idea of an expensive deal for the long term. Add to that the Twins seemed to settle for less in terms of trade value for Santana so if the Indians are inclined to go that route, the market value has been lowered.

The crown jewel of the Twin's package is Carlos Gomez a speedy outfield who was less than impressive in 125 at bats with the Mets last season. He hit just .232 and struck out 20% of the time. Also in the package was Phillip Humber the third overall pick in 2004. He was 11-9 last year at AAA New Orleans with a 4.27 ERA. He also had a short stint with the Mets and posted a 7+ ERA. The Twins also pick up Kevin Mulvey who posted a 12-10 record and a 3.20 ERA at AA Binghamton in 26 starts. The final piece of the deal was youngster Deolis Guerra, who turns 19 in April and was 2-6 with a 4.01 ERA at A level St. Lucie.

This package isn't nearly as appealing as the Philip Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and minor leaguer offer the Yankees proposed and then withdrew in December at the Winter meetings. The Twins didn't even get the top prospect away from the Mets who are considered to have a lower half farm system.

Overall, this trade is a stinker for the Indians. Santana hasn't been outstanding against them and he has dominated the rest of the AL Central and other playoff teams in the AL. Rather than helping the Indians have a better shot at the playoffs and AL dominance Santana will be headed to the Mets to complete maybe the best 1-2 punch in all of MLB. That is of course only if Perdo Martinez can return to his late season dominance from last year (3-1, 2.57 ERA) when he was the only member of the Mets who didn't collapse in September to have one of the greatest late season collapses in baseball history.


So I say a sad goodbye, to you Johan, oh master of the AL. We hardly knew ye.